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16 December 2010

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O Kleen

This is an interesting comparison, yet I think it's slightely flawed. For once 82 Lafite - or any other wine of a certain vintage - is strictly limited in supply - that is constantly dwindling. Especially for the 82 this is true - as this is beeing drunk now.
Theoretically the supply for gold and oil are limited as well - yet ever more sophisticated extraction techniques (e.g. deep water exploration) push this boundary constantly. The fundamentals for 82's Lafite are a little different - there will be no new supply. Yet it seems that demand is increasing with the number of rich people growing worldwide and customers in emerging markets starting to get interested in fine wine.
So the question is if fine wine needs to be compared with art or commodities. A gramm of the Mona Lisa canvas is probably quite expensive. Obviously there are more bottles of 82 Lafite then there are Mona Lisa's - but the supply is clearly more limited than it is for oil or gold. So a valuation "somewhere in the middle" doesn't even seem very ridiculous when seen from this angle.
Does this justify Lafite's premium over the other first growth's? Does this justify the level of fine wine prices in general? Tough to say - as in any other market it's a question of supply and demand. So how many people are holding wine for investment? And if so - if it dropped significantly - would they sell it off or drown their sorrows drinking the wine they bought too expensively (thus limiting supply again and supporting prices).
Not an easy question to answer.. I for myself can say if all my wine would be worth zero tomorrow - I'd happily drink it when I retire.

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