Liv-ex Fine Wine Market Blog

Disappearing profits

In any En Primeur campaign there are four key players: the chateaux, the negociants, the merchants and the collectors. For the system to work over the long term, all participants must stand to make money for it to be worthwhile.

The Super Seconds occupy an awkward space in the pantheon of Bordeaux pricing – between the First Growths and the more affordable lesser crus. The below chart takes a basket of Super Seconds – Cos D’Estournel, Ducru Beaucaillou, Montrose, Palmer, Pichon Baron and Pichon Lalande – and calculates the percentage difference between the En Primeur release price* and the current market price. As shown, rewards for holding stock for both collectors and merchants have declined sharply since 2005.

The Super Seconds may have cut prices from last year, but with both merchant and collector losing money for three years running, making a case for buying these wines En Primeur is becoming harder. 

* For the collector, this represents current market price vs London release price. For the merchant, current market price vs ex-negociant price. All prices have been calculated in Euros. 

市场力量

上面的图表显示了各酒庄2012葡萄酒的伦敦发行价与其目前可在市场上得到的最便宜年份价格之间的百分比差异。大约只有三分之一酒庄的2012年葡萄酒在市场上是最经济实惠的; 余下大多数其旧年份却更加便宜。

在二手市场高于发行价的交易都集中在那些参考了目前旧年份的市场价格而相应降低其2012年发行价的酒庄, 证明这一策略已取得了回报。

Super Seconds aim too high

Today brought several key 2012 releases, including top Right Bank wines Ausone and Cheval Blanc. (The Liv-ex En Primeur Pages have comprehensive coverage of 2012 prices, scores and opinions.)

From the beginning the campaign has proved tough going for merchants, with the market still reeling from the effects of the overpriced 2011 campaign. Indeed 2012 will be marked by the unusual (but welcome) event of seeing two Super Seconds, Pichon Lalande and Montrose, release below the Flying Fifths, Lynch Bages and Pontet Canet (€57.6 per bottle ex-negociant compared to €60 per bottle ex-negociant). Expectations were that Seconds Ducru Beaucaillou and Cos D’Estournel would make a similarly strong effort – but this proved not to be the case, with the former releasing today at €69.6 and the latter at €89.

Neither has met demand. As shown in the chart below, for Cos D’Estournel there are simply too many cheaper back vintages for collectors to choose from. 

Spotlight on...Eglise Clinet

 

Owner: Denis Durantou
Appellation: Pomerol
Vineyard area: six hectares
Average annual production: 18,000 bottles p/a
Standard blend: 85% Merlot, 15% Cabernet
Other wines: Petite Eglise

History

Small but significant Eglise Clinet is the progeny of Pomerol’s Clos l’Eglise and Chateau Clinet. Plots from both properties were merged in 1882 when the estates’ owners, Mauleon Rouchut and the Constant family, decided to embark on a joint venture. Initially, the wines were sold as Clos l’Eglise Clinet, but this was shortened to its present form in the mid-20th century.

By the 1940s, the estate was owned by the grandparents of current proprietor Denis Durantou. The family did not live at the chateau at the time and they made most of their money from their dairy farm in Coutras. With their energy focused on bovine and butter, the family arranged for Pierre Lasserre of Chateau Rene to manage the estate in return for a 50 per cent share of the yearly profits. This arrangement came to an end in the 1980s when Denis Durantou took the reins.

The 2012 vintage

Eglise Clinet’s reputation has gone from strength to strength. Several critics cited its 2009 and 2010 as the wine of the vintage, and the chateaux repeated this success earlier in the year when the 2012 was the only wine to receive a potential 100 point in-barrel score from Robert Parker. It received high critic scores across the board; James Suckling awarded the wine 94-95 points and described it as “top notch […] full bodied, and grows on the palate ever so steadily.”

Market Trends

Despite the market’s downturn, the most recent ten physical vintages of Eglise Clinet have performed remarkably well over the past year. On average, the wines are up by 10% since April 2012, with the high-scoring 2009 leading the way (up 45%).

As shown below, the Right Bank 100 Index has far outperformed its wider parent index, the Liv-ex Bordeaux 500, over the last five years – and Eglise Clinet has been one of the wines pushing it up.  

  

Market forces

The above chart shows the percentage difference between the London release price of the 2012s and the current market price for their cheapest vintage available. For just over a third of wines, the 2012 is the most affordable on the market. For the rest, earlier vintages can be bought for less.

Secondary market trade at or above the release price has been heavily concentrated in those chateaux that took note of current trading in back vintages, and dropped prices accordingly. This strategy has paid dividends.   

Liv-ex推出崭新比较图表

Liv-ex推出了一项重大崭新的制作图表工具，供其酒商成员在liv-ex.com或酒窖监察用户于 cellar-watch.com使用。图表资料是由Liv-ex无敌广泛的价格数据提供。

图表提供许了多新功能，包括一个强大的比较工具，使用户可对个别葡萄酒、年份、 私人酒窖、Liv-ex指数和其它另类指数进行比较，(包括富时100指数、恒生、标准普尔500指数和黄金)。另外, 在个别葡萄酒图表中也可得到其它新功能, 包括时间选择器、价格变动百分比和性能表。下图是一比较功能的范例:

如欲使用比较图表功能， Liv-ex成员可在“数据” 标签选项中选择“图表”; 而酒窖监察用户则可在“酒窖工具”标签选项中选择“图表”。请大家也看看个别葡萄酒页中的新功能。

Pichon Lalande listens to the market

Pichon Lalande released today at €57.6 p/b ex-negociant – 20% less than the release price of its 2011 last year. In contrast to its fraternal neighbour Pichon Baron, this makes the 2012 the cheapest vintage available.

The wine is being offered in London at £650 per case: 10% less than the current price for its 2007, 2008 and 2011. It remains to be seen whether the 2012’s affordability leads to demand, but this is certainly the kind of pricing that En Primeur buyers will welcome.

Pichon Baron misses the mark

The pause in the 2012 releases last week did little to quell fears that this will be a ‘forgotten’ campaign; many worried that a scrum of late releases will result in wines being overlooked.  This morning the campaign resumed.  Pichon Baron was out of the blocks at €65 per bottle ex-negociant: a 10% reduction on its 2011 release price but a 51% increase on its 2008.

Consequently, the 2012 is more expensive than the current prices of several earlier Pichon Baron vintages. It is being offered in London at £710 per 12x75: dearer than the 2006 (£650) and the 2007 (£684), and almost the same price as the 2008 and 2011.

With the 2012s so far failing to rouse interest – only the Firsts and Carruades have traded in May – keen pricing is more important than ever. Pichon Baron is unlikely to provide reassurance. 

Liv-ex launches new comparison charts

Liv-ex has launched a major new charting tool, available to its member merchants on liv-ex.com and to Cellar Watch subscribers on cellar-watch.com. The charts are fed by unrivalled and extensive price data from Liv-ex.

The charts have a host of functions, including an enhanced comparison tool that enables users to compare individual wines and vintages, personal cellars, Liv-ex indices and many alternative indices (including the FTSE 100, Hang Seng, S&P 500 and Gold). Other new functions – also available on the individual wine charts – include time selectors, percentage price movements and performance tables. An example of the comparison function is shown below.

To read more about the charts, please visit the Cellar Watch blog.

Liv-ex members can access the comparison charts by selecting ‘Chart’ under the ‘Data’ tab, while Cellar Watch users can find them by selecting ‘Charting’ under the ‘Cellar Tools’ tab. Please also take a look at the new functions on the Individual Wine Pages.  

May 2013 Market Report released

The May Market Report includes:  

• Cellar Watch launches new comparison charts

• Trading Activity - The market pauses

• Liv-ex indices retreat

• Major Movers - Angelus finds a level

• Chart of the month - Mirrored paths

• Final Thought - Bordeaux 2012: all in the price

Please log in to the Cellar Watch website and find the full report in Market Reports under the Cellar Tools tab. Those who have not yet subscribed can view the first page of the report here.